Estimated cash flows should be current, i.e., reflect conditions existing at the measurement date, including assumptions about the future. An entity should review and update its estimates from the close of the previous reporting period. In doing so, an entity should consider whether updated estimates faithfully represent the conditions at the end of the reporting period and changes during the period [IFRS 17 B54].
Faithful representation of conditions at the reporting date and changes in the period
If conditions have not changed in a period, shifting a point estimate from one end of a reasonable range at the beginning of the period to the other end of the range at the end of the period would not faithfully represent what has happened during the period.
If the most recent estimates are different from previous estimates, but conditions have not changed, an entity should assess whether the new probabilities assigned to each scenario are justified. In updating its estimates of those probabilities, the entity should consider both the evidence that supported its previous estimates and all newly available evidence, giving more weight to the more persuasive evidence.
An entity should not update probabilities for claim events to reflect actual claims that took place after the reporting date but before the financial statements are finalised. For example, there may be a 20% probability at the end of the reporting period that a major storm will strike during the remaining six months of an insurance contract. After the end of the reporting period, but before the financial statements are authorised for issue, a major storm strikes. The fulfilment cash flows under that contract should not reflect hindsight (i.e., the storm that occurred in the next period). Instead, the cash flows included in the measurement should include the 20% probability apparent at the end of the reporting period (with disclosure applying IAS 10 Events After the Reporting Date that a non-adjusting event occurred after the end of the reporting period) [IFRS 17 B55 and IAS 10 10-11].
Using current estimates Using current estimates Using current estimates Using current estimates Using current estimates Using current estimates Using current estimates